Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

It’s been a wild roller coaster of news for U.S. gamers this week. The excitement kicked off with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and games. However, the joy quickly turned to dismay when the $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The situation took another twist this morning when Nintendo decided to delay pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden, sweeping, and unprecedented tariffs on numerous countries worldwide.

We've explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these tariffs on the gaming industry elsewhere. However, the burning question on everyone's mind now is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive once pre-orders open?

Typically, when faced with such uncertainties in the gaming world, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future, they usually provide a solid, evidence-backed consensus on likely outcomes, which I then report on. I've already done this twice this week. But for the first time since I began these interviews, every analyst I spoke with was effectively stumped. They offered guesses, but each response was heavily caveated with an emphasis on the current chaotic situation. This unprecedented scenario means no one can accurately predict what Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or anyone else might do next.

With that in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke to did say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were divided in their predictions. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, believes that Nintendo will likely raise prices. Initially, he thought it was too late for such a move after the price announcement, but the delay has changed his perspective. He predicts that Nintendo might announce price hikes not only for the console but also for games and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," he said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, asking, "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, also leans towards price increases, though he emphasizes the unpredictability of the situation. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing companies to reevaluate their pricing strategies. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he said. Piscatella also mentioned that the US might join other regions in experiencing higher game prices due to these tariffs.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, agrees that hardware prices will likely increase, though he believes software prices might be less affected due to the dominance of digital distribution. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he explained. However, he stressed that if a significant tariff were introduced, companies like Nintendo would likely pass the additional costs onto consumers.

Holding the Line

On the other hand, some analysts believe Nintendo will try to maintain the announced price. Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but thinks Nintendo has already factored in the volatility from the tariffs into the $449.99 pricing. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he said. He suggests that Nintendo will strive to keep the price at $449.99, though external economic pressures might eventually force a reassessment.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees, warning that raising prices further could lead to consumer backlash. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he said. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I have already suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place." He believes Nintendo will use the delay to seek a solution, hoping to maintain the announced price to avoid damaging the brand and consumer perception at launch.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He also pointed out that Nintendo had announced cheaper digital editions of Switch 2 games in other markets, suggesting a strategy to push digital sales. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital," he said. "Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."

Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He stated that these tariffs would lead to a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers bearing the brunt of the costs. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he explained. "And even if companies can afford to switch up their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports."

Elliott concluded by criticizing the tariffs, noting that they harm the economy and go against core economic principles. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade," he said. "Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business."

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