Switch Sales Dip as Eyes Turn to Future

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast has been revised downward again, with Switch console and game sales falling "below expectations." For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), reflecting decreased sales of both the Switch and its software. Mobile and IP-related revenue also declined by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), primarily due to unfavorable comparisons with 2023's highly successful The Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-over-year decrease in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has further reduced its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, marking the second consecutive downward revision. The company anticipates selling even fewer Switch units than previously projected, lowering its forecast by 1.5 million to 11 million units, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million units.

While sales declines are expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially anticipated. Nevertheless, the Switch has surpassed 150 million units sold, a remarkable achievement. While surpassing the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales to become the best-selling console of all time may be unlikely, the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales are within reach.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in its third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable, considering the platform's eighth year." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, with software sales declining 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million units sold.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success. In its first 11 weeks (following its October 17, 2024 release), it outperformed previous Mario Party titles on the Switch (Super Mario Party and Mario Party Superstars).

Crucially, active Switch users remain high, with 129 million annual players in 2024. This indicates continued engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that while Switch unit sales declined year-on-year, "even in its eighth year since launch in March 2017, the Nintendo Switch continues to attract consumer interest, and sales in some weeks during the holiday season exceeded same-week sales of the previous year."

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Given the financial report, investors eagerly await the Switch 2's release. Nintendo confirmed upcoming Switch titles: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (scheduled for 2025).

The Switch 2 was also mentioned, with Nintendo reiterating its planned 2025 release and referencing the January 16th hardware reveal video. A dedicated Switch 2 Direct is planned for April 2nd, along with hands-on events globally.